Team USA is a consensus 1.5-run favorite ahead of Tuesday night’s World Baseball Classic championship game against Venezuela despite sending rookie right-hander Nolan McLean to the mound.
Venezuela reached its first WBC final with a come-from-behind 4-2 win against Italy on Monday night and will turn around 24 hours later with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez starting against Team USA’s power-laden lineup.
The U.S. has been backed by 80% of the run-line money at BetMGM. However, the moneylines have drawn nearly split money, with the underdog Venezuelans drawing 52% of the money at +220 to upset Team USA (-275).
DraftKings reported that based on the odds, Venezuela is given only a 31% chance of winning on Tuesday night in Miami.
Oddsmakers are expecting a more high-scoring game than the 2-1 semifinal Team USA won over the Dominican Republic on Sunday. The total run lines at most major sportsbooks were hovering around 8.5 to 9.0 on Tuesday afternoon. It was at 8.5 at BetMGM, with the Over drawing 74% of the money.
Team USA’s Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber are the most popular choices at BetMGM to hit a home run in the final. They are both being offered at +220 ahead of teammates Bryce Harper (+375), Gunnar Henderson (+380) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (+400). Venezuela’s shortest odds to hit at least one homer belong to Wilyer Abreu and Ronald Acuna Jr. at +450.
“UNBELIEVABLE EXPERIENCE”
The U.S., 3-2 all-time against Venezuela in the WBC, is seeking its second-ever title as it makes its third consecutive appearance in the final. The U.S. is looking for redemption after coming up short in the 2023 final against Japan.
“I think you’re crazy if you don’t want to do this, honestly,” McLean said on Monday. “Just getting the opportunity to put that ‘USA’ on your chest and go out there and compete with honestly the best players in the world, I think it’s an unbelievable experience for me.”
Venezuela continued to play inspired baseball on Monday night against Italy, scoring three runs in the seventh inning to rally from a 2-1 deficit.
The Venezuelan players and coaches talked about the importance of bringing joy to their families and their nation if they can secure one more triumph.
“This is what I dreamed of. What could I do to put my little grain in the sand to try and make my country happy?” Venezuela manager Omar Lopez said after the latest win. “It’s a dream I tried to preach to everyone on this team — to be in this position and have a chance to do this.”
Rodriguez, who is hoping to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 once the major league season gets underway, pitched 2 2/3 innings in Venezuela’s only loss of the tournament, against the Dominican Republic on March 11. The 32-year-old struck out five while allowing three runs on three hits, including two home runs, and one walk.
McLean, 24, also made his lone start in his team’s lone loss of the Classic, giving up three runs on two hits, including two homers, over three innings against Italy. McLean struck out four and walked two in that outing on March 10.
Maikel Garcia has been one of the top hitters in a resilient Venezuelan lineup. The Kansas City Royals third baseman has gone 10-for-23 (.435) with two doubles, a homer and six RBIs.
“Maikel is a super baseball player,” Lopez said. “He knows how to manage everything that happens in the game. He’s like a manager. There can be 70,000 people cheering and it doesn’t faze him.”
